#Gap analysis for back office operations update#

Furthermore, supply chains are interrupted leading to shortages of parts and intermediate goods.

Measures to contain the disease by lockdowns and quarantines lead to further and more severe drops in capacity utilisation. On the supply side, companies experience a reduction in the supply of labour, as workers are unwell or need to look after children or other dependents while schools are closed and movements of people are restricted. There are several ways the coronavirus pandemic affects the economy, especially SMEs, on both the supply and demand sides. The WTO reported a decline in the volume of global merchandise trade in Q1 2020 by 3% year-on-year, and expects an unpresented decline in Q2 of 18.5%, potentially leading to a drop of 32% over 2020. The ILO estimates the impact of COVID-19 to result in a rise in global unemployment of between 5.3 million (вЂњlowвЂќ scenario) and 24.7 million (вЂњhighвЂќ scenario), signalling that вЂsustaining business operations will be particularly difficult for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)вЂ™ (ILO, 2020). The June 2020 World Investment Report (Unctad, 2020) forecasts a decline in global foreign investment by up to 40% in 2020, with a further decrease by 5-10% in 2021.

#Gap analysis for back office operations update#

The IMF June 2020 Economic Outlook Update projects a decline in global GDP by 4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April forecast, followed by a partial recovery, with growth at 5.4 percent in 2021 (IMF, 2020). In recent weeks, several other international organisations have issued forecasts on aspects of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. This follows a forecast in late March, which indicated that the initial direct impact of the shutdowns could be a decline in the level of output of between one-fifth to one-quarter in many economies, with consumersвЂ™ expenditure potentially dropping by around one-third (OECD, 2020). In its June 2020 Economic Outlook, the OECD projected a 6% drop in global GDP, and a 7.6% fall in case of a second pandemic wave by end 2020, with a double digit decline in some of the most hit countries, followed by a modest recovery of 2.8% in 2021 (OECD, 2020). 3 While world-wide, the number of COVID-19 continues to increase at the time of writing of this report, in a number of OECD countries cases are diminishing, and lockdown and containment measures are gradually being lifted.Д®conomic forecasts issued over April-June 2020 depict an increasingly negative outlook in terms of the scale of the global economic recession triggered by the pandemic. It is the largest public health crisis in living memory, which has also generated a major economic crisis, with a halt in production in affected countries, a collapse in consumption and confidence, and stock exchanges responding negatively to heightened uncertainties. The coronavirus pandemic is causing large-scale loss of life and severe human suffering globally.